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4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 56

Wolverhampton · Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap · 6f 20y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Overcame a wide draw when narrowly recording a second C&D success of the season here last week. Step back up in grade/penalty probably enough to prevent a follow up.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 125 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 55 par13/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par5/056OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 6f20y Std 134 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 7f1y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 54 par10/075OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 56 · 6f20y Std 139 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 5f21y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 56 par17/085OR 565 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 55 · 6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 55 par15/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-09-08Leicester52nd1st+1
2026-08-17Windsor54th3rd+1
2026-07-30Wolverhampton69th9th0
2026-07-10Chester53rd2nd+1
2026-06-28Wolverhampton61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0328/0617/0815/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
23/03/20266th2/189%17%-0.73
05/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
28/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/07/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
30/07/20269th66/10%20%+0.20
17/08/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
08/09/20262nd17/255%90%+0.35
15/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18