17:00 · Newcastle

Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Nursery

5fGoing TBCClass 42YO onlyALLWEATHERHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
2
OR 85
9/2
Havana Lightning silks

Mr Shapoor Mistry

2yo Filly · 9-9

Havana Grey - Persaria (Equiano)

Billy Loughnane70%1/3G Boughey60%
5106
4.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap

Showed why she'd been well backed on debut when a decisive winner at Yarmouth second time up. Ran below that level in Group 2 Queen Mary next time but not discredited in a tongue tie when sixth of 13 in listed race at Newbury (5f, good to firm) 7 weeks ago. Respected on nursery debut.

Class Advantage

15/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a15/0420/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/0517/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/0614/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par14/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength94%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 5 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 43%15/04Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%20/05Pos 18 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 35%17/06Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 58%14/08
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.5%Ahead 3/4
3
Top Pick1
OR 84
4/1
Not My Type silks

Lael Stable

2yo Filly · 9-8

No Nay Never - Arousing (Kodiac)

Cieren Fallon70%1/1W J Haggas60%
1155
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

No Nay Never filly who went 2-2 when making all in novice at Beverley (5f, good) in August. Struggled at listed level later that month but fared a lot better making her nursery debut back at 5f when fifth of 11 at Newmarket (good to firm) last week. Considered on all-weather bow.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/0713/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a13/0831/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par31/0824/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/09 · mark par24/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%24/07Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%13/08Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%31/08Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 60%24/09
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.9%Ahead 3/4
1
Market Fav4
OR 86
2/1
Blake's Monarch silks

The Good Racing Co Ltd & Partners

2yo Gelding · 9-10

Ten Sovereigns - Glencross (Gleneagles)

Jason Hart60%1/1I Furtado60%
2601
6.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap

Had been gelded/had a breathing operation and got off the mark back in calmer waters sporting a first-time tongue strap in 8-runner novice at Redcar (5f, good to firm) just over 2 weeks ago, making all having broke well. Handicapper taken no chances with his opening mark but may well kick on.

Class Advantage

11/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a11/0530/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/0520/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0615/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength72%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 90%11/05Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%30/05Pos 10 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 55%20/06Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%15/09
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.9%Ahead 4/4
4
Value3
OR 82
7/1
Kentucky Rain silks

Amo Racing Limited

2yo Filly · 9-6

Lucky Vega - Equanimity (Exceed And Excel)

Rowan Scott60%1/1Lemos Souza60%
20144
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓4
Tongue strap

Landed the odds in 5f Beverley maiden in July but below that level upped in grade the last twice, most recently when fourth of 7 in conditions stakes at Chester (6f, good) just under 6 weeks ago. Tongue tie reapplied for her nursery bow and more is needed to feature.

Class Advantage

22/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a22/0517/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a8/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par22/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 86%22/05Pos 16 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 42%17/06Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/4 | Actual: 100%20/07Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 57%8/08Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 50%22/08
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.8%Ahead 1/4
6
5
OR 80
6/1
Peaceful Warrior silks

Peaceful Warrior Partners

2yo Gelding · 9-4

No Nay Never - Salamah (Shamardal)

Shane Gray60%0/1K A Ryan60%
1404
5.0

Knew his job and made a successful debut in 8-runner novice at Yarmouth (6f, good) in May. Struggled on his next couple of starts and spoiled his chance at the start when fourth of 9 in nursery at Chester (5f, good to soft) just under 3 weeks ago. Handicapper drops him another 2 lb.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a20/0510/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/0719/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par19/0812/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength76%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%20/05Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 50%10/07Pos 15 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 18%19/08Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 63%12/09
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.8%Ahead 3/4
5
7
OR 80
16/1
Bill The Bull silks

Vicarage Dreamers

2yo Colt · 9-4

Coulsty - Princess Banu (Oasis Dream)

R Havlin60%Adam Kirby60%
418096
3.0Class ↓3
Tongue strap

Won a Bath maiden in June but has struggled to get competitive in 4 subsequent outings, a marked change of tactics backfiring when sixth of 8 on nursery debut at Yarmouth (6f, good) a fortnight ago. Easy enough to look elsewhere having his second all-weather outing.

Class Advantage

28/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/055/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par18/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par29/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par17/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength91%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 57%28/05Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 8 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 0%3/07Pos 12 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 52%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 20%29/07Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 29%17/09
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength20%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.1%Ahead 3/4
7
6
OR 67
8/1
Eleven Eighty Two silks

Middleham Park, David Frame & Partner

2yo Filly · 8-5

Ardad - Eyes That Dazzle (Showcasing)

A Mullen70%0/2B Haslam
42268
4.0Going 8.0

Split a pair of subsequent winners at Carlisle before again filling the runner-up spot at Ripon in July. Dropped away tamely on nursery debut at Ripon (6f) and ran even worse back in maiden company at Beverley (5f, heavy) last time. Returns to a nursery for her all-weather debut.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a4/0615/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a6/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par27/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/07 · mark par30/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength18%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 40%4/06Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 89%15/06Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 90%6/07Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 0%27/07Pos 8 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 8 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 42%30/08
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.2%Ahead 1/4