13:25 · Cork

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap (Birdcatcher Series)

6fGoing TBC2YO onlyTURFHandicap7 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 76
13/8
Pink Venom silks

Noel Hartley

2yo Filly · 9-9

Soldier's Call - Periwinkle (Teofilo)

Ben Coen70%1/3J P Murtagh60%
7331
7.0Going 7.0

Boasts some good form and justified heavy support in making a successful nursery debut at Fairyhouse (6f) last week, suited by the strong pace. Another bold bid expected despite a 9 lb rise.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/061/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a1/0723/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a23/0821/09 · C7 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 33%4/06Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 71%1/07Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 86%23/08Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/5 | Actual: 100%21/09
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +26.3%Ahead 3/4
6
2
OR 75
7/2
Howlin Wolf silks

Mrs Paula Davison

2yo Gelding · 9-8

Cotai Glory - Moon Of Love (Kodiac)

James Ryan1/5J Davison70%
774122
7.0Going 8.0
1st Blinkers +3

Improved with each run, getting off the mark switched to nurseries in 8-runner event at the Curragh in August and then twice second at Navan (6f), edged out in first-time cheekpieces last time. Stronger headgear on now and one to consider.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/057/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/08 · C7 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par27/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below27/08 · mark par5/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 33%16/05Pos 7 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 57%3/07Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 86%27/08Pos 2 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 2 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 89%5/09
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +38.2%Ahead 4/4
5
3
OR 75
6/1
Best Love silks

Paul Fitzpatrick Racing & Partners

2yo Filly · 9-8

Kodi Bear - Bits Of Love (Showcasing)

Declan McDonogh1/1E & P Harty60%
0U471
6.0

Improved when winning 5f Navan maiden 4 weeks ago, although possibly favoured by her position. 6f should suit but needs more again to defy her mark.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/0524/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a24/0714/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a14/082/09 · C8 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 18%4/05Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 67%24/07Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 60%14/08Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%2/09
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +40.8%Ahead 4/4
1
5
OR 79
5/1
Fine Line silks

Patrick John O'Brien

2yo Filly · 9-12

Sioux Nation - Shelter (Le Havre)

J M Sheridan60%0/4D Hogan
074427
4.0

Beaten just 2¼ lengths in valuable 15-runner sales race at the Curragh earlier in the month but down the field in 7f Group 3 there on Sunday. Inflated mark to deal with now back in a nursery (held off 61 at Down Royal a few starts back).

Class Advantage

28/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/075/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below5/08 · mark par21/08 · C6 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par4/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/09 · mark par13/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/09 · mark par27/09 · C1 · finish vs mark above27/09 · mark par27/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 400/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 400/1 | Actual: 18%28/07Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 45%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 40%21/08Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 67%Pos 2 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 93%13/09Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 14%27/09
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.3%Ahead 2/4
2
4
OR 79
8/1
Whosinterviewinwho silks

Punchestown Friends Syndicate

2yo Colt · 9-12

Inns Of Court - The Mehmas Touch (Mehmas)

Sam Coen60%−5lbA Slattery60%
7520
4.0
1st Visor +2

Well backed and much improved when second in maiden at Galway (7f, good) last month, but ran no sort of race at Down Royal next time. Drops to 6f with visor fitted for nursery debut.

Class Advantage

30/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a30/0616/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/072/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/084/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 57%30/06Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 60%16/07Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 89%2/08Pos 13 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 13 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 8%4/09
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +14.1%Ahead 3/4
3
6
OR 77
10/1
Cyclone Code silks

R Cavanagh

2yo Gelding · 9-10

Kodi Bear - Spy Ring (Bushranger)

Donagh O'Connor0/4S Cavanagh
6634
4.0

Showed more dash than on his first 2 outings returning from a 9-week break (gelded) when third of 8 in 5f maiden at Navan at the start of the month. Not so good at Naas next time but could get back on track now handicapping back up over 6f.

Class Advantage

11/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/051/07 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a1/072/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a2/0917/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 44%11/05Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 29%1/07Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 71%2/09Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 57%17/09
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.8%Ahead 3/4
7
7
OR 63
8/1
Captain James Cook silks

Westerberg,Magnier,Tabor,Smith,Brant

2yo Colt · 8-10

Blackbeard - Liberisque (Equiano)

Wayne Lordan60%0/3A P O'Brien
07664
3.0

Hasn't lived up to his pedigree/price tag but shaped better than the distance beaten suggests on second go in a nursery behind Pink Venom at Fairyhouse (6f) last week, showing plenty of speed in front and clear 2f out before fading. Down another 4 lb and could yet find a race.

Class Advantage

3/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a3/068/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a5/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par21/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 12 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 8%3/06Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 14%8/07Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 55%18/08Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 6 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 44%5/09Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 50%21/09
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -23.0%Ahead 0/4