15:00 · Southwell

'Smooth Radio - Always The Best Music' Novices' Handicap Hurdle

3m 60yGoing TBCClass 54YO plusTURFHandicap9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 95
6/5
Crafty Gael silks

Olly Murphy Racing Club

7yo Gelding · 11-12

Mastercraftsman - Brazilian Samba (Sadler's Wells)

S Bowen80%1/3O Murphy80%
008321
7.0Going 10.0
Cheek pieces1st Tongue Strap +2

Ex-Irish recruit who was suited by the step up in trip when off the mark on third start for the Olly Murphy team at Worcester (23f) last month (had Daaris back in third. May well defy a 6 lb rise now up and running for excellent yard.

Class Advantage

22/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below22/03 · mark par22/0316/04 · C9 · finish vs mark below16/04 · mark par24/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/04 · mark par26/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par19/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 13 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%22/03Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 10 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 31%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%24/04Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 86%19/08Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 100%10/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.1%Ahead 2/4
6
3
OR 81
15/2
Captain Connor silks

Mr Robert Clarke And Clare Ellam

4yo Gelding · 10-8

Brave Mansonnien - Darling Point (Dark Angel)

Brendan Powell60%0/3C Ellam
P78273
5.0Class ↓2

Relatively lightly-raced 4-y-o. Travelled well when career-best second behind hard-held winner at Stratford on stable debut. Did at least shape better than on his previous start when 11¼-length third at Plumpton (20.5f) latest. Worth a go over 3m and makes some each-way appeal in a weak race.

Class Advantage

22/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/015/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below5/07 · mark par24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par25/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/08 · mark par7/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below7/09 · mark par20/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 22%22/01Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 30%24/07Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 14%7/09Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 60%20/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength96%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +37.0%Ahead 3/4
4
4
OR 91
7/2
Daaris silks

Miss Lauren Frost

7yo Gelding · 11-8

Dawn Approach - Reyaadah (Tamayuz)

Lee Edwards0/7K Frost70%
333483
4.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Fair stayer on Flat (hasn't fired this year). Matched the best of his hurdle form when stepped up markedly in trip at Worcester (23f) last time, staying-on 6 lengths third behind Crafty Gael. No sure thing to reverse that form off better terms, though.

Class Advantage

3/01 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/01 · mark par3/0127/01 · C6 · finish vs mark below27/01 · mark par11/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 44%3/01Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 17%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%11/05Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 22%28/08Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 80%10/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +20.8%Ahead 3/4
7
2
OR 81
14/1
Athena's Dream silks

Miss H Dickin

4yo Filly · 10-8

Ulysses - Volver (Danehill Dancer)

Megan Bevan0/6−7lbH Dickin60%
423529
4.0
Visor

Error-prone maiden who had been running to a fairly consistent level in staying handicaps. Didn't see out her race in change of headgear (retained) when well behind Crafty Gael at Worcester (23f) last time, though, and yard without a winner in 6½ months.

Class Advantage

22/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/04 · mark par22/0410/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/05 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par15/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/07 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 67%22/04Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 71%26/06Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 5 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 75%28/08Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 9 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 20%10/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength8%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -6.3%Ahead 1/4
1
5
OR 97
16/1
Jurassic Pet silks

Foxtrot National Syndicate

6yo Mare · 12-0

Sholokhov - Another Pet (Un Desperado)

N de Boinville60%S Bradstock60%
621430
4.0
Tongue strap

Winning pointer from a good jumping family. Showed some promise to hit the frame in maiden hurdles at Ludlow/Hereford in February. Not helped by an inefficient ride when well held on handicap bow at Exeter (23f, 22/1) latest. May do a bit better with Nico de Boinville replacing amateur on return.

Class Advantage

4/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0222/02 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a22/0217/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/03 · mark par17/03projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 73%4/02Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%22/02Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 44%17/03
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +47.0%Ahead 3/3
5
6
OR 78
25/1
Cappa Lass silks

Clap The Lass Racing

5yo Mare · 10-9

Walk In The Park - Cuditbelucky (Beneficial)

Toby Wynne60%0/2O Greenall & J Guerriero
P2678P
3.0
Hood

Runner-up on her completed start in Irish points. Little to enthuse over in 4 hurdle starts, not jumping well when pulled up on her handicap debut/return at Bangor (2½m, 25/1). Hopes of improvement pinned on first-time cheekpieces/step up in trip.

Class Advantage

4/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0418/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/0416/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/05projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 17%4/04Pos 7 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 50%18/04Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 30%16/05
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.2%Ahead 1/3
3
8
OR 95
8/1
Ol Parson silks

The Mammoth Pack Ltd

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Ol' Man River - Long Long Time (Dr Massini)

Sam Twiston-Davies80%Jack Jones60%
P24960
2.0

Hit the frame last 2 starts in points. Only form in 3 maiden hurdle starts for Maike Magnussen came when beaten 11¼ lengths in a messy Roscommon maiden in July. Opening mark demands more, however, he may yet do better for new yard.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a6/066/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a6/0729/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a29/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 50%6/06Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 62%6/07Pos 14 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 32%29/07
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength87%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +47.7%Ahead 3/3
8
7
OR 76
12/1
Could Be You silks

RS Racing (Syndicates)

6yo Gelding · 10-7

Youmzain - Milano Bay (Milan)

R P McLernon60%N P Mulholland
P0P9F8
2.0Class ↓2

Placed both starts in Irish points. Up in trip when showing first sign of ability under Rules behind Crafty Gael at Worcester (12/1) latest, in contention entering straight but ultimately well held following late mistakes. Needs a close look in the market with Richie McLernon aboard first time.

Class Advantage

13/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/1212/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/0121/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below21/04 · mark par21/0410/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 3m 60y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 50%13/12Pos 11 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 9%12/01Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 11%21/04Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 30%10/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -1.9%Ahead 2/4