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14:10 · Newmarket

British Stallion Studs EBF Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Fillies' Listed)

1mGoing TBCClass 12YO onlyTURF11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market FavTop Pick
OR 111
10/11
Haven silks

D Smith,mrs J Magnier,m Tabor,westerbe

Haven

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3

Wootton Bassett - Light The Stars (Sea The Stars)

S M Levey40%A P O'BrienSynergy 75
8212
6.0Class ↓1
Going 0Course 86

Dominant winner of a Dundalk maiden before an excellent length second of 8 to Musical Times in Fillies' Mile over C&D (good to firm) 22 days ago. That sets the bar high for a listed race and she's likely capable of even better.

Class Advantage

28/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/079/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/0925/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a25/099/10 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/10 · mark par9/10projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲5
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 86Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 36%28/07Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 94%9/09Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%25/09Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 86%9/10
Projected finish1st of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-182/100
9
OR 97
16/1
Speckles silks

Mrs John Magnier,mr M Tabor & Mr D Smi

Speckles

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 8

No Nay Never - Seventh Heaven (Galileo)

H Crouch10%A P O'BrienSynergy 82
62531
6.0Class ↓0
Going 0Course 0

Fairly useful filly who didn't have to reproduce her best form to land the odds in maiden at Leopardstown (8.5f, good) 14 days ago. Looks the Ballydoyle third string.

Class Advantage

19/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/079/08 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a29/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/09 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par17/10 · C8 · finish vs mark above17/10 · mark par17/10projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%19/07Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 92%9/08Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 56%29/08Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 80%10/09Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 8/15 | Actual: 100%17/10
Projected finish2nd of 11
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
90%5-1062/100
7
5/1
Sizzling Affair silks

Newtown Anner Stud Farm

Sizzling Affair

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 5

Night Of Thunder - Fizzi Top (Frankel)

S H James40%1/1K R Burke60%Synergy 47
1
10.0
Going 0Course 0

Readily justified strong market support (11/10) on 7f Haydock debut (soft) 36 days ago, pulling 3½ lengths clear of reopposing Trapped Goddess (won since). Looks yet another useful prospect for her powerful stable.

Class Advantage

25/09 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a25/09
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%25/09
Projected finish3rd of 11
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
80%1-450/100
8
OR 106
7/1
So Lovely silks

Mr D Smith, Mrs J Magnier, Mr M Tab

So Lovely

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 1

Wootton Bassett - Love (Galileo)

Declan McDonogh10%A P O'BrienSynergy 79
22165
4.0Class ↓1
Going 0Course 0

Regally-bred filly who made it third time lucky over 7f at Leopardstown in August. Useful effort when 1¾ lengths fifth of 12 to Green Empress in Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Longchamp (1m, good) 27 days ago. The chief form threat to stablemate Haven.

Class Advantage

16/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/0730/07 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a20/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a29/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/10 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/10projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength29%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 80%16/07Pos 2 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 2 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 92%30/07Pos 1 · SP 2/5 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 2/5 | Actual: 100%20/08Pos 6 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 6 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 44%29/08Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 64%4/10
Projected finish4th of 11
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
70%1-944/100
10
Value
OR 87
25/1
Thi Qar silks

Al Wasmiyah Stud

Thi Qar

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 9

Mehmas - Countess De Vega (Lope De Vega)

Tyler Heard10%J & T Gosden60%Synergy 29
221
8.0
Going 0Course 80

Mehmas filly who shaped with plenty of encouragement when narrowly denied on her first 2 starts and duly made no mistake at Nottingham (8.3f, good, 1/3) at the beginning of the month. Capable of better.

Class Advantage

8/08 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a8/083/09 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a3/091/10 · C3 · finish vs mark above1/10 · mark par1/10projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 80Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 80%8/08Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%3/09Pos 1 · SP 1/3 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 1/3 | Actual: 100%1/10
Projected finish5th of 11
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
60%10-1174/100
3
16/1
Haldon Pier silks

Mr D J Deer

Haldon Pier

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 7

Palace Pier - Be My Gal (Galileo)

Rhys Clutterbuck10%1/1R M Beckett70%Synergy 57
1
10.0
Going 0Course 0

6/1, won 5-runner maiden at Sandown (1m, good to soft) on debut 50 days ago. That bare form is well short of the required standard here but she should improve for a yard seeking a third successive win in this listed prize.

Class Advantage

11/09 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a11/09
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%11/09
Projected finish6th of 11
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
50%1-450/100
1
OR 93
16/1
Bayside View silks

Townbraccan, McGarry & Ballylinch Stud

Bayside View

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 6

Bayside Boy - Enlace (Shamardal)

Callum Shepherd40%M L W Bell60%Synergy 21
21264
5.0
Going 0Course 0

Fairly useful form. Creditable fourth 18 in Goffs Million at the Curragh (7f, good to soft, 17/2) 35 days ago, never nearer. 1m should be within range on that evidence.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a6/0623/06 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a23/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par30/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par26/09 · C9 · finish vs mark below26/09 · mark par26/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 80%6/06Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 100%23/06Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 86%23/07Pos 6 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 6 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 29%30/08Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 82%26/09
Projected finish7th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
40%6-1162/100
5
8/1
Roku Nana silks

Stay Foolish

Roku Nana

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 4

Bayside Boy - Dream Wild (Oasis Dream)

Callum Rodriguez20%R Varian60%Synergy 65
31
8.0
Going 0Course 0

Half-sister to useful winners and looked of a similar level herself when bounding 7 lengths clear in a Beverley novice (7.3f, good) on her second start. More to come.

Class Advantage

29/08 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a29/0816/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a16/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 83%29/08Pos 1 · SP 2/5 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 2/5 | Actual: 100%16/09
Projected finish8th of 11
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength52%
ExpectedActualTrend
30%6-671/100
11
OR 81
33/1
Trapped Goddess silks

Mrs Paul Shanahan

Trapped Goddess

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 10

Sioux Nation - Tanamia (Nayef)

David Probert40%1/2H Palmer60%Synergy 43
21
8.0
Going 0Course 0

Made it second time lucky in 7f Redcar novice (good to soft) a fortnight ago but has 3½ lengths to make up on Sizzling Affair from her Haydock debut.

Class Advantage

25/09 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a25/0916/10 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a16/10projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength15%
Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 89%25/09Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%16/10
Projected finish9th of 11
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
20%11-1171/100
2
OR 85
25/1
Diplomata silks

The Thoroughbred Racing Corporation Lt

Diplomata

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 11

Havana Grey - Parliament House (Slade Power)

Harry Davies10%W J HaggasSynergy 43
45311
6.0
Going 0Course 0

Progressive, winning 7f nurseries at Haydock (good to soft) and Ayr (soft) 6 weeks ago. This is a jump in class but she's capable of better again, particularly now stepping up to 1m.

Class Advantage

13/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a13/0524/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a14/08 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par18/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 0Dist: 1m · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 57%13/05Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 20%24/07Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 33%14/08Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%3/09Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%18/09
Projected finish10th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength27%
ExpectedActualTrend
10%3-1144/100
6
OR 75
66/1
Ruby Sands silks

The Cool Silk Partnership

Ruby Sands

2yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2

Sands Of Mali - Ellaria (Exceed And Excel)

K Shoemark20%Ollie SangsterSynergy 57
332
6.0
Going 0Course 78

Fair form when placed in 3 maiden/novice events but a good deal more will be needed here.

Class Advantage

23/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a23/0726/09 · C2 · finish vs mark n/a26/0910/10 · C3 · finish vs mark above10/10 · mark par10/10projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going · 0Course · 78Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%23/07Pos 3 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 78%26/09Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%10/10
Projected finish11th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength2%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%8-1166/100