17:00 · Leopardstown

Bahrain Turf Club Desmond Stakes (Group 3)

1mGoing TBCClass 13YO plusTURF9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
3
OR 1067/1
Audience silks

Hamad Rashed Bin Ghedayer

7yo Gelding · 9-9

Iffraaj - Ladyship (Oasis Dream)

Colin Keane60%0/2D O'Meara70%
000923
5.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

Unreliable type who won the Lockinge in his pomp for the Gosden stable. Put together 2 decent efforts for the first time for new connections when placed in Group 3 here and Group 2 at the Curragh (both over 7f) last 2 starts. Could prove difficult to catch around here.

Class Advantage

23/01 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/01 · mark par23/0128/02 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/02 · mark par6/03 · C1 · finish vs mark below6/03 · mark par9/05 · C1 · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par11/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par19/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/07 · mark par19/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength42%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 12 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 21%23/01Pos 11 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%6/03Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 83%11/06Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%19/07
Projected finish1st of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
Value2
OR 10410/1
Chicago Critic silks

Sam Mencoff & Tony Smurfit

5yo Gelding · 9-9

Night Of Thunder - Criticism (Machiavellian)

Ben Coen70%3/16J P Murtagh
264844
6.0

Just touched off in a Meydan Group 2 in February but hasn't matched that form since, his record now 0-14 in pattern company.

Class Advantage

2/01 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/01 · mark par2/0123/01 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/01 · mark par6/03 · C1 · finish vs mark above6/03 · mark par23/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par6/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par27/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par27/06projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength40%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 44%2/01Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 93%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%6/03Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 57%6/06Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 40%27/06
Projected finish2nd of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength74%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
5
OR 10014/1
Cowardofthecounty silks

Annus Mirabilis Syndicate

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Kodi Bear - Hawaajib (Elusive City)

Ronan Whelan60%J P O'Brien60%
082132
7.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Consistent rather than progressive but his latest second (ahead of Isaac Newton) in a Group 3 here (9f) was possibly a career best.

Class Advantage

27/09 · C10 · finish vs mark below27/09 · mark par27/0915/04 · C1 · finish vs mark above15/04 · mark par22/04 · C10 · finish vs mark below22/04 · mark par12/06 · C10 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par28/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par16/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par16/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move5
Strength21%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 11 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 9%27/09Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 30%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%22/04Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 60%28/06Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 80%16/07
Projected finish3rd of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength82%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
Top Pick1
OR 1098/1
Sparan Nua silks

Newtown Anner Stud Farm Ltd

3yo Filly · 9-2

Dawn Approach - Sparanai (Leroidesanimaux)

Declan McDonogh2/3J S Bolger
1113
8.0Going 8.0

Took the step up in class in her stride when making it 3 from 3 in Group 3 at Cork (1½m) in June and continued her progress with an excellent third in Irish Oaks at the Curragh, left poorly placed. Form pick but this significant drop back in distance is a slight concern at this level.

Class Advantage

9/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a9/0520/05 · C0 · finish vs mark n/a20/0514/06 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a14/0618/07 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par18/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move2
Strength6%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 100%9/05Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%20/05Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%14/06Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 78%18/07
Projected finish4th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength35%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
4
OR 10411/2
Isaac Newton silks

D Smith,Mrs J Magnier,M Tabor,Westerberg

3yo Colt · 9-2

Camelot - Etive (Elusive Quality)

R L Moore60%2/5A P O'Brien60%
445163
6.0Going 8.0

Made the frame in a Group 1 at Saint-Cloud on final start at 2 yrs. Matched that form only once this season (overcame trouble to win listed race at Navan in June), though wasn't disgraced when third in a Group 3 here (9f) 3 weeks ago.

Class Advantage

26/10 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/10 · mark par26/1015/04 · C1 · finish vs mark above15/04 · mark par9/05 · C1 · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par7/06 · C1 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par28/06 · C1 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par16/07 · C1 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par16/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 67%26/10Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 20%9/05Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 17%28/06Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%16/07
Projected finish5th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength31%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
Market Fav6
OR 1061/8
Al Haarith silks

Alwasmiyah/Ballylinch/Umm Al Shukhout

3yo Colt · 9-2

Lope De Vega - Witches Brew (Duke Of Marmalade)

Dylan Browne McMonagle60%1/3J P O'Brien60%
34301
5.0
Tongue strap

Third in the Group 2 Beresford at the Curragh on his final 2y-o start. Disappointed in a Fairyhouse maiden on reappearance but had no trouble landing very skinny odds in Limerick maiden last month. Probably has a bigger performance in him given how strong his Beresford form is.

Class Advantage

28/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a28/069/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/09 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below5/06 · mark par11/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par11/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move6
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 83%28/06Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 67%9/08Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%27/09Pos 11 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 11 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 23%5/06Pos 1 · SP 1/8 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/8 | Actual: 100%11/07
Projected finish6th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
7
OR 1035/2
Tokenomics silks

N Molloy

5yo Gelding · 9-9

The Grey Gatsby - Danni Samuel (Elusive City)

Luke McAteer5/17D Marnane
213426
5.0

Winner of handicaps at Cork and Dundalk last season and proved he can be competitive at this sort of level when reaching the frame in listed events over C&D this spring. Too free in a slowly-run event since and can bounce back.

Class Advantage

17/10 · C10 · finish vs mark below17/10 · mark par17/107/11 · C10 · finish vs mark above7/11 · mark par6/03 · C10 · finish vs mark below6/03 · mark par15/04 · C1 · finish vs mark above15/04 · mark par10/05 · C1 · finish vs mark above10/05 · mark par28/06 · C1 · finish vs mark below28/06 · mark par28/06projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move5
Strength18%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 83%17/10Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 3 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 60%6/03Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 4 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 86%10/05Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%28/06
Projected finish7th of 9
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
8
OR 921/5
Celtic Motif silks

Wells Watson

4yo Filly · 9-6

Saxon Warrior - Art Institute (Arch)

J M Sheridan60%J P O'Brien60%
420231
5.0Going 9.0
Tongue strap

Finally off the mark back with former yard when readily landing the odds in 5-runner maiden at Killarney last month but has plenty to find at this level.

Class Advantage

22/10 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a22/109/02 · C6 · finish vs mark below9/02 · mark par8/03 · C1 · finish vs mark above8/03 · mark par2/11 · C6 · finish vs mark below2/11 · mark par10/01 · C6 · finish vs mark below10/01 · mark par14/07 · C8 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par14/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Class readPROGRESSIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move4
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 80%22/10Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 89%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 10%8/03Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 89%Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 80%10/01Pos 1 · SP 1/5 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/5 | Actual: 100%14/07
Projected finish8th of 9
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
9
OR 10618/1
Needle Match silks

Saeed Suhail

3yo Colt · 9-2

Night Of Thunder - Cleopatra's Gift (American Pharoah)

Tom Marquand70%1/3W J Haggas60%
140
4.0

Made a winning debut at Newbury (6.5f, heavy) last autumn. Much improved despite still needing the experience when fourth in the Greenham there on return, but off since a lacklustre display in the 2000 Guineas. Remains with potential back in calmer waters.

Class Advantage

24/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/1018/04 · C1 · finish vs mark n/a18/042/05 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark below2/05 · mark par2/05projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength14%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%24/10Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 57%18/04Pos 13 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 13 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 8%2/05
Projected finish9th of 9
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength21%
ExpectedActualTrend