14:20 · Bellewstown

Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60)

5f 3yGoing TBC3YO plusTURFHandicap10 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 55
2/1
Steel Magnolia silks

W McCreery

4yo Filly · 9-12

Coulsty - Social Butterfly (Clodovil)

Billy Lee60%1/6W McCreery60%
347213
8.0
Visor

Off the mark in a heavy-ground handicap over C&D this time last year. Seen to best effect when doubling her tally at Naas in August (in-frame horses have franked the form) and still in good heart when 2¾-length third in big-field Navan handicap latest. Expected to go well again for in-form yard.

Class Advantage

19/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/05 · mark par19/0524/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par3/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par3/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par23/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par5/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 75%19/05Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 85%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%3/07Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 93%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%23/08Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 88%5/09
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength90%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +5.8%Ahead 3/4
2
4
OR 57
9/4
El Fontenaro silks

Park Hill Racing

4yo Filly · 10-0

The Irish Rover - Clonville (Thousand Words)

Reese Holohan−5lbJ P Fahey
402215
6.0

Had twice gone close before finally opening her account at Cork (6f good to firm) in late-July. Shaped as if still in good form when fifth under contrasting conditions (soft) at the same track on Tuesday. She may just be sharper for that run, too, and has solid claims to resume winning ways.

Class Advantage

3/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par3/0528/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/05 · mark par12/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par29/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/09 · mark par29/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 77%3/05Pos 11 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 11 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 41%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 93%12/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%24/07Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 78%29/09
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.8%Ahead 4/4
1
Value2
OR 57
13/2
Dandy Land silks

Probity Racing Syndicate

4yo Filly · 10-0

Dandy Man - Happy Land (Refuse To Bend)

Sam Coen60%−5lbW McCreery60%
683218
6.0
Visor

Improved again when scoring by 1¼ lengths from Steel Magnolia (who won next time) at Naas in early-August. Found her progress coming to a halt when beaten 6½ behind that stablemate over the same C&D last time. May well bounce back under good-value claimer, provided she handles contrasting ground.

Class Advantage

3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par3/0612/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par3/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par3/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par23/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 74%3/06Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 53%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 83%3/07Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 1 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 100%3/08Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 61%23/08
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.5%Ahead 3/4
10
3
OR 40
14/1
Star Allure silks

J Dervan & Ms Riona Teggart

4yo Filly · 8-11

Sea The Stars - Nurse Barbara (Kodiac)

Siobhan Rutledge0/3C O'Connell60%
080055
3.0
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Long-standing maiden whose best effort came when third in a C&D maiden (soft) this time last year. Yet to fire this season, finishing a never-dangerous fifth of 9 in 6f handicap at Laytown earlier this month. Could outrun her odds returning to this track, though. Engaged 3.50 here Wednesday.

Class Advantage

13/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/01 · mark par13/0127/02 · C8 · finish vs mark below27/02 · mark par3/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par3/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/08 · mark par10/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par30/09 · C8 · finish vs mark above30/09 · mark par30/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 23%13/01Pos 8 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 31%3/05Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 36%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 50%10/09Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 33%30/09
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +37.5%Ahead 4/4
8
5
OR 42
5/1
Ballysax Lil' Mick silks

Liam Tougher

8yo Gelding · 8-13

Prince Of Lir - Well Hello (Manduro)

Wesley Joyce0/2Miss K Brown60%
606055
3.0
Cheek pieces

Winner in higher grade at Tipperary last summer. Arrives in reasonable heart, only beaten 3½ lengths in a more competitive event at Navan latest. Weighted to go close off 1 lb lower.

Class Advantage

31/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/10 · mark par31/1023/01 · C6 · finish vs mark below23/01 · mark par7/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par24/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/06 · mark par16/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par5/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 62%31/10Pos 14 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 14 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 75%7/06Pos 13 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 13 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 60%16/08Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 76%5/09
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +31.3%Ahead 4/4
4
10
OR 52
12/1
Banish Misfortune silks

Kiltrogue Stud Racing Syndicate

4yo Filly · 9-9

Unfortunately - Sea Quest (Born To Sea)

Donagh O'ConnorGerard Kyne
08005
2.0

Showed first form reverting to positive tactics at Down Royal last time, finishing 5 lengths fifth in a 5f maiden (good, 250/1). Starts life in handicaps off a lowly mark but probably still needs to build on last time.

Class Advantage

19/06 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a19/063/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/07 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a18/08 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 16 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 0%19/06Pos 8 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 0%3/07Pos 12 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 8%11/07Pos 15 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 0%18/08Pos 5 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 64%4/09
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.0%Ahead 2/4
9
6
OR 40
25/1
Hastily silks

Stephen McGuinness

7yo Mare · 8-11

Charm Spirit - Likely (Exceed And Excel)

Shay Wallace60%0/1−7lbTom McGuinness60%
000909
2.0
Cheek pieces

Had cheekpieces refitted when winning off this mark at Cork (6f) last summer. Continued below form when down the field on return to that track last time. Does at least have headgear back on here (can start slowly). Engaged 3.15 Bellewstown Wednesday.

Class Advantage

20/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par20/0530/05 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par16/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/09 · mark par29/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/09 · mark par29/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 15 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 7%20/05Pos 14 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 7%Pos 13 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 8%12/06Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 8%16/09Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 56%29/09
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.1%Ahead 4/4
5
8
OR 52
20/1
One Cool Bear silks

John Francis Ryan

3yo Gelding · 9-9

Kodi Bear - Mienvee Flyer (Pivotal)

Adam Caffrey0/14A McGuinness70%
470088
2.0
1st Blinkers +3

Long-standing maiden. Only beaten 3¾ lengths at Navan (5f) earlier this month. Dropped 3 lb on the back of a similar effort at Fairyhouse last time and sports a change of headgear back down in class.

Class Advantage

27/04 · C7 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par27/0411/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par28/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below28/05 · mark par12/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par5/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par21/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 73%27/04Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 13 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 13 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%28/05Pos 14 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 7%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 59%5/09Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 56%21/09
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength42%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.3%Ahead 3/4
6
7
OR 50
50/1
Gold Inn silks

Grove Inn Syndicate

3yo Filly · 9-7

Inns Of Court - Dig For Gold (Camacho)

Rory Mulligan60%0/1−5lbG A Kingston
56800
2.0

Lightly-raced 3-y-o whose form went wrong way for Andrew Slattery. Showed nothing on return/stable debut at Gowran (1m), either, and hard to be confident of better dropped markedly in trip.

Class Advantage

10/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a10/1012/12 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par19/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 69%10/10Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 55%12/12Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 8 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 30%11/04Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 15%11/05Pos 14 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 13%19/09
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +1.3%Ahead 2/4
7
9
OR 48
50/1
Smart Sioux silks

Brickfield Stud Limited

3yo Filly · 9-5

Sioux Nation - Unfoolish (Fastnet Rock)

Rory Cleary0/5C O'Connell60%
090070
2.0
Tongue strap

Has shown little in varied events at longish odds. Unlikely to fare much better for a further ease in grade.

Class Advantage

28/08 · C7 · finish vs mark below28/08 · mark par28/0824/10 · C7 · finish vs mark below24/10 · mark par5/11 · C6 · finish vs mark below5/11 · mark par11/04 · C6 · finish vs mark below11/04 · mark par14/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par23/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par23/08projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f 3y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%28/08Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%5/11Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 45%14/08Pos 16 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 17%23/08
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength14%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.5%Ahead 2/4