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18:13 · Churchill Downs

Race 4 - Starter Allowance

1m3YO plusDIRT6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
2
OR 84
9/2
Diablo Shiraz silks

Gibson, Rick, Gibson, Donna, Roberson, Denis W And Williams, James M

Diablo Shiraz

3yo Filly · 8-6

Daredevil - Forever Vow (Broken Vow)

Summer Pauly60%1/2Denis Roberson60%
423621
6.0Class ↓2

Class Advantage

7/03 · C8 · finish vs mark below7/03 · mark par7/038/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/04 · mark par4/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below4/06 · mark par26/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below26/06 · mark par17/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/08 · mark par6/09 · C7 · finish vs mark above6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 70%7/03Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 75%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%4/06Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 75%17/08Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 100%6/09
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +37.6%Ahead 3/4
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 86
1/1
West Coast Dream silks

Stoneway Farm

West Coast Dream

4yo Filly · 8-10

West Coast - Dream Dance (Afleet Alex)

Yedsit Hazlewood60%1/1Michael McCarthy60%
311
7.0Going 8.0

Class Advantage

18/08 · C9 · finish vs mark n/a18/0811/04 · C9 · finish vs mark above11/04 · mark par11/0417/08 · C8 · finish vs mark above17/08 · mark par17/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 71%18/08Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%11/04Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%17/08
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength99%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.3%Ahead 3/3
4
3
OR 89
6/1
Cara Felce silks

C D M Racing Stable Llc, Blue Tarp Iii Llc And Blue Tarp Fore Llc

Cara Felce

3yo Filly · 8-6

Caravaggio - Pampered Pretty (Tapit)

Brian Jr HernandezPaul McGee60%
5561
5.0Going 8.0

Class Advantage

26/12 · C7 · finish vs mark n/a26/1218/01 · C7 · finish vs mark below18/01 · mark par18/0113/02 · C7 · finish vs mark below13/02 · mark par13/0220/02 · C9 · finish vs mark above20/02 · mark par20/02projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 56%26/12Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 64%18/01Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 44%13/02Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%20/02
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +18.5%Ahead 3/4
5
6
OR 82
3/1
True Princess silks

Norman Stables Llc

True Princess

5yo Mare · 8-10

Maximus Mischief - Raramuri Princess (Northern Afleet)

Gabriel Saez0/2Lonnie Briley
296462
5.0Class ↓2

Class Advantage

5/05 · C8 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par5/058/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/09 · mark par21/12 · C7 · finish vs mark below21/12 · mark par20/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below20/09 · mark par5/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below5/07 · mark par21/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%5/05Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 17%21/12Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%5/07Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 83%21/08
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.9%Ahead 2/4
3
4
OR 84
12/1
Menkaure silks

Ekb Stables Llc

Menkaure

3yo Filly · 8-6

City Of Light - Lady Pharoah (American Pharoah)

Christopher Emigh60%Brittany Vanden60%
158135
5.0

Class Advantage

10/01 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/01 · mark par10/0120/02 · C7 · finish vs mark below20/02 · mark par3/04 · C7 · finish vs mark below3/04 · mark par10/05 · C8 · finish vs mark above10/05 · mark par12/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par21/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par21/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 1 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 100%10/01Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 8 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 30%3/04Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%12/06Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 33%21/08
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.9%Ahead 2/4
6
5
OR 84
8/1
Cold Case silks

Chad Call

Cold Case

3yo Filly · 8-6

Tiz The Law - Brie's Snowflake (Tale Of The Cat)

Francisco Arrieta2/4Matt Williams60%
131660
5.0Class ↓2

Class Advantage

20/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below20/03 · mark par20/0318/04 · C9 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par23/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below23/05 · mark par12/06 · C8 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par11/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par6/09 · C7 · finish vs mark below6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 1/1 | Expected: 95%Pos 6 · SP 1/1 | Actual: 38%20/03Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 1 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%23/05Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 17%11/07Pos 10 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 18%6/09
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.0%Ahead 2/4