5
Lika Rolling Stone
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 78
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Beldame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |