2
Lost Horizon
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 2 - Beldame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲4
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-01-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2025-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 10/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |