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4

Nitrogen

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 116

Belmont Park · Race 2 - Beldame Stakes - Grade 2 · 1m 1f

#1

Rank

Odds

1/9

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Saratoga 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 113 · 1m1f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 113 par5/07C?OR 113C0 @ Saratoga 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 112 · 1m2f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 112 parC0 @ Keeneland 05/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 115 · 1m1f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2025 · OR 115 par5/10C?OR 115C0 @ Del Mar 01/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 118 · 1m1f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 118 parC1 @ Oaklawn Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 119 · 1m110y 119 · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 119 par7/02C1OR 119C0 @ Oaklawn Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 119 · 1m110y Slo 121 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 119 parC1 @ Oaklawn Park 11/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m110y 12211/04C1C0 @ Saratoga 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 115 · 1m1f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 115 parC0 @ Saratoga 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 120 · 1m1f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 120 par8/08C?OR 120projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Saratoga?2nd2nd+0
2026-06-05Saratoga?1st1st+0
2026-04-11Oaklawn Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-07Oaklawn Park?3rd3rd0
2026-02-07Oaklawn Park?1st1st−0
2025-11-01Del Mar?2nd2nd+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/071/1111/048/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/20252nd2/598%83%-0.15
16/08/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
05/10/20252nd9/488%75%-0.13
01/11/20252nd7/282%91%+0.09
07/02/20261st1/398%100%+0.02
07/03/20263rd1/499%67%-0.32
11/04/20262nd8/1196%88%-0.09
05/06/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
08/08/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12