1
Badiane
4yo Filly · 9-0
Belmont Park · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2024-10-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -30.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2024 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 15/11/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |