5
Aeolian
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 92
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 0th | +5 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |