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Concurrently

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 90

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 29/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 11929/08C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 85 · 1m 119 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 85 par28/09C6OR 85C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 87 · 1m 119 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 87 par2/11C6OR 87C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 88 · 1m 121 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 88 par18/06C6OR 88C6 @ Saratoga 19/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 90 · 1m 121 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 90 par19/08C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-06-18Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2025-11-02Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2025-09-28Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2025-08-29Saratoga?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0828/092/1118/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20256th4/179%44%-0.35
28/09/20252nd13/266%90%+0.24
02/11/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
18/06/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
19/08/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10