3
Decadent
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 94
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -8.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 01/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |