Valtellina
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 98
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-21 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/06/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |