7
Brokealltherules
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 86
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Meadowlands | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |