9
Can't Fool Me
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |