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8

Charlottesuniverse

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 86

Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 17/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y 11917/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 09/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fm 119 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 72 par9/08C6OR 72C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 19/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 84 par19/09C5OR 84C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 79 · 6f Fm 121 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 79 par17/05C6OR 79C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 84 par28/06C5OR 84C5 @ Saratoga 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 83 par26/07C5OR 83C5 @ Saratoga 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 85 · 1m1f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 85 par3/09C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Saratoga?1st0th+1
2026-07-26Saratoga?2nd1st+1
2026-06-28Belmont At The Big A?4th3rd+1
2026-05-17Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2025-09-19Belmont At The Big A?8th7th+1
2025-08-09Saratoga?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0717/053/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +11.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20254th15/890%63%-0.28
09/08/20252nd11/486%86%+0.00
19/09/20258th9/153%0%-0.53
17/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
28/06/20264th20/10%73%+0.73
26/07/20262nd10/382%89%+0.06
03/09/20261st13/266%100%+0.34