Greyjoy
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 83
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 16/04/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |