Mommy's Turn
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-12-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 16/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |