11
Caitlin The Great
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 76
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-21 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -18.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 27/02/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |