2
Carolina Smokeshow
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-31 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 31/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 71% | -0.24 |
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 30% | -0.57 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/12/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |