Celestial Express

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 83

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#12

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: -0.1

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Saratoga	?	10th	9th	+1	1.2
2026-08-02	Saratoga	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-28	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	6th	−1	3.8
2026-06-14	Monmouth Park	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-04-26	Gulfstream	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-04-16	Gulfstream	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/02/2026	5th	40/1	0%	43%	+0.43
05/03/2026	7th	50/1	0%	33%	+0.33
29/03/2026	4th	40/1	0%	57%	+0.57
16/04/2026	7th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
26/04/2026	6th	40/1	0%	29%	+0.29
14/06/2026	4th	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
28/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
02/08/2026	9th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
04/09/2026	10th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00