Emerald Ember
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 81
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |