IvyArcIvyArc
1

Fairy Godmother

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 79

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS2/11C6C6 @ Aqueduct 13/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 78 parC9 @ Aqueduct 05/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 75 · 6f 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 75 par5/02C9OR 75C9 @ Aqueduct 25/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 68 · 6f Gd 120 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 68 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 66 · 6f Fm 121 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 66 par23/05C9OR 66C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 68 · 6f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 68 parC5 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 73 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 73 par25/07C5OR 73C5 @ Saratoga 22/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 77 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 77 par22/08C5OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Saratoga?1st-1th+2
2026-07-25Saratoga?3rd1st+2
2026-06-28Belmont At The Big A?6th4th+2
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?1st3rd−2
2026-04-25Aqueduct?3rd5th−2
2026-02-05Aqueduct?6th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1125/0425/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/20255th14/126%64%+0.37
13/12/20256th20/10%55%+0.55
05/02/20266th4/179%38%-0.41
25/04/20263rd14/126%71%+0.45
23/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/06/20266th7/282%55%-0.27
25/07/20263rd9/276%82%+0.06
22/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21