Mermaid

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 87

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength26%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Saratoga	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-08-08	Saratoga	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-07-19	Saratoga	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-06-11	Belmont At The Big A	?	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-05-07	Belmont At The Big A	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6
2026-04-16	Aqueduct	?	3rd	2nd	+1	7.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength79%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/07/2025	2nd	12/1	37%	88%	+0.51
20/12/2025	3rd	9/4	88%	78%	-0.10
30/01/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	78%	-0.12
16/04/2026	3rd	6/4	92%	60%	-0.32
07/05/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
11/06/2026	8th	33/1	0%	13%	+0.13
19/07/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	88%	+0.09
08/08/2026	6th	14/1	26%	29%	+0.02
29/08/2026	5th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50