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3

Midnightloveaffair

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 77

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 75 · 6f Fm 118 · beat its mark26/06/2025 · OR 75 par26/06C9OR 75C5 @ Saratoga 30/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 77 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 75 · 6f 120 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 75 par23/10C8OR 75C8 @ Gulfstream 23/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 78 · 5f 123 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 78 parC8 @ Gulfstream 19/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Fm 123 · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 70 par19/02C8OR 70C8 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 66 · 6f 126 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 66 par16/05C8OR 66C8 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Fm 126 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 67 parC7 @ Saratoga 20/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 5f110y Fm 126 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 72 par20/08C7OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Saratoga?3rd3rd0
2026-06-25Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2026-05-16Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2026-04-18Laurel Park?7th8th−1
2026-02-19Gulfstream?5th6th−1
2026-01-23Gulfstream?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0623/0116/0520/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
30/08/20258th40/10%30%+0.30
23/10/20252nd7/282%89%+0.07
23/01/20268th8/158%0%-0.58
19/02/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
18/04/20267th9/276%25%-0.51
16/05/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
25/06/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
20/08/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56