Oklahoma Smoke

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 79

Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

80%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength48%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-25	Saratoga	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-07-03	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-06-03	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-14	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-04-02	Aqueduct	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2024-12-07	Aqueduct	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▲

Strength99%

Delivery trend +5.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/12/2024	1st	11/8	93%	100%	+0.07
02/04/2026	6th	15/2	61%	29%	-0.32
14/05/2026	5th	10/1	47%	20%	-0.27
03/06/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
03/07/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	67%	-0.16
25/07/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29