Samartina
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 84
Belmont Park · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-22 | Dieppe | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 22/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 15/11/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |