Devilish Grin
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 86
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
21%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-01-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/01/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 07/02/2026 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |