3
Key Actress
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 72
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 03/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 29/08/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 03/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 11/12/2025 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |