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10

Paraiba Blue

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 66

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 38 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2025 · OR 38 par2/05C6OR 38C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 21/06/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 42 · 1m110y Fm 118 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 42 parC9 @ Saratoga 24/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 62 par24/07C9OR 62C9 @ Penn National 11/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 66 · 1m70y Fm 123 · below its mark11/09/2025 · OR 66 parC9 @ Laurel Park 05/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m110y Fm 1195/10C9C9 @ Aqueduct 11/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 54 · 1m 122 · below its mark11/02/2026 · OR 54 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 01/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 37 · 1m Fm 126 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 37 par1/05C9OR 37C9 @ Belmont At The Big A 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 43 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 43 parC7 @ Delaware Park 13/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 50 · 7f110y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 50 par13/08C7OR 50projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Delaware Park?6th4th+2
2026-05-15Belmont At The Big A?8th8th0
2026-05-01Belmont At The Big A?8th8th0
2026-02-11Aqueduct?8th8th0
2025-10-05Laurel Park?7th7th0
2025-09-11Penn National?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0511/091/0513/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength14%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/05/20259th50/10%11%+0.11
21/06/20256th50/10%50%+0.50
24/07/20259th50/10%0%0.00
11/09/20253rd33/10%71%+0.71
05/10/20257th25/10%25%+0.25
11/02/20268th50/10%0%0.00
01/05/20268th40/10%22%+0.22
15/05/20268th40/10%0%0.00
13/08/20266th40/10%29%+0.29