6
Riyah Al Nil
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 57
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 22/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |