2
Cicatriz
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 60
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 09/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |