5
Dark Fury
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 68
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 13/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/02/2026 | 9th | 6/5 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |
| 24/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |