6
Equal Success
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 61
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2024 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 28/11/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/04/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |