7
First Pearl
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 65
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 26/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |