3
Trouble And Strife
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 60
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 09/11/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |