Hanabi
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 61
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 19/12/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 04/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |