Mint Driven
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |