5
Parking Lot Pours
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 03/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |