She's Fascinating
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 59
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-11-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-01-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/11/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 23/01/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/03/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/01/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |