Wits And Wagers
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 79
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-30 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |