Dizzy Miss Lizzy

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 62

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +2.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-01	Ellis Park	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2026-06-18	Hawthorne	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-05-28	Hawthorne	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 16-16 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -35.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/05/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	83%	+0.07
18/06/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	67%	-0.21
01/08/2026	8th	7/1	63%	0%	-0.63