Givemethebeat
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/08/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 10/09/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 13% | -0.53 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |