Muriel Sax
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 69
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 27/06/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 03/08/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 28/09/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |