Spill The Sugar
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 64
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |