14
Triple Moon
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 63
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength69%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-08-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength15%
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |