2
Alta Avenue
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 96
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Starter Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength89%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 91% | +0.07 |